So the landfall probability forecasts are now above average as well as the forecasts for number of storms and hurricanes, hence the overall forecast prediction is erring towards a more active Atlantic tropical storm season than normal in 2018.
The CSU researchers said they anticipated "a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental USA coastline and in the Caribbean".
With this year's hurricane season less than 60 days away, the first credible forecast is out.
In December, the NHC released preliminary numbers of 15 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The El Nino is the name for a pattern of warm ocean temperatures in the central Pacific, which produces high winds across the southern United States, often breaking apart tropical storms.
The trio of devastating storms, which struck in late August and September 2017, had a much more devastating impact on the electric power industry, leaving millions without power for varying periods in the US Southeast and Puerto Rico.
The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team is predicting 14 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.
"Hurricanes have definitely gotten people's attention after what happened past year", Phil Klotzbach, a CSU research scientist, said in an interview Thursday. Waters in other parts of the Atlantic remained cooler than average.
Gulf Coast: 38 percent (average for past century is 30 percent) * U.S. East Coast: 39 percent (average is 31 percent) * Entire continental U.S. coast: 63 percent (average is 52 percent).
"Right now, we are in a weakening La Niña pattern, but the climate pattern is expected to go into what's called a neutral pattern, which promotes near-normal wind shear", he continued, a factor that could limit development and intensification of hurricanes.
Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria helped drive total losses to more than US$215 billion in 2017.
"The conditions just don't look as strong as what they were previous year".